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March 28, 2001: Delta pilots rejected the National Mediation Board's (NMB) offer to provide binding arbitration in its contract negotiations with Delta management. This means that the thirty-day cooling off period clock starts ticking today, and Delta pilots could legally walk off the job, grounding the airline, on or shortly after April 30 (exact date determined by the NMB).

However, the pilots' union said that it is "confident that we will be able to reach an agreement with management prior to the end of the 30 day cooling off period." And if that agreement does not come to pass by the end of the cooling off period, Delta management is counting on President Bush to appoint a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) that could push the potential strike date back another 60 days to June 30. If that does not work, Congress can step in and impose terms of an agreement.

Advice:

1) Although Delta is making promises of uninterrupted service, think twice about making Delta bookings for any date after April 30, or after June 30 (when the PEB extension expires). Even if a Presidential Emergency Board forces pilots back to work, you can expect slowdowns and disruptions.

2) If you just can't get out of the Delta habit, and you have an important meeting this spring or summer, we suggest that you go ahead and buy your Delta ticket, but also, buy a fully refundable (Y) back-up ticket on a non-strike threatened airline. (Try AirTran, Continental, US Airways, TWA, America West, or Frontier among others.) Remember that it is unlikely that any other airline will accept a SkyMiles award ticket (of any other non-rev ticket) if Delta shuts down.

3) For travel to smaller cities, Delta says that subsidiary ASA will continue to fly in the event of a Delta mainline strike. (However, Delta's Comair is currently on strike, with all flights cancelled through early April.)

4) Be sure to ask for paper tickets to expedite processing in the event of a strike; better yet, get your paper ticket from a travel agent who will be able to better assist you.

5) Be sure that Delta and/or your travel agent have updated contact numbers for you—- include your home, office, mobile numbers as well as a contact number at your destination.

March 21, 2001: It looks increasingly likely that Delta's Comair subsidiary will go on strike Monday, March 26, when the current cooling off period expires. (Delta's CFO Michelle Burns was quoted Tuesday saying that Comair pilots "may well" strike.) Comair does not serve Atlanta; most of its operations are centered in Cincinnati and Orlando. HOWEVER . . .

Delta will attempt to re-accommodate many Comair passengers on Delta mainline and ASA flights via Atlanta. If you are flying from Atlanta to/from or through a Comair hub or destination during a strike, expect heavy crowds, hot tempers, and full planes. Expect it to be more difficult to find last minute seats to/from Comair dominated cities. Comair serves many small to midsize cities in the eastern half of the country. To determine if you are flying into a Comair city, check its route map at: http://www.comair.com/maps/system/ .

It is unlikely that President Bush will intervene in this job action with a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB), as these powers are usually restricted to strikes at carriers that threaten the national economy. A strike at a commuter like Comair could be viewed as less threatening. The threat of a Delta mainline strike is fading as long as the National Mediation Board does not release pilots and management into a cooling off period, and the possibility of a Bush PEB remains likely. Word this week is that both sides are more optimistic about an agreement than they were earlier this month.

THE BIG QUESTION. President Bush's recent move to prevent a strike at Northwest seems to have soothed Delta fliers who are expecting (or praying for) a similar move when Delta reaches a final impasse with its pilots. Aswe prepare for this broadcast, talks between Delta and its pilots are still stalled until the National Mediation Board either offers binding arbitration, or forces both sides back to the table. Each day we are in this limbo, the date for a potential strike extends beyond the previously ballyhooed April 1 deadline. Here at THE TICKET, we have been bombarded with the "big question" of whether or not we think Delta will really shut down due to a strike. Here is our "big answer:" WE DON'T KNOW. However, what we DO know is that business travel and uncertainty do not mix, so we suggest booking away from strike prone carriers until this has passed. Additionally, employees forced to work by government decree will make for an unpleasant, or worse, unpredictable, flight experience.

ONE OPTION. If you just can't get out of the Delta habit, and you have an important meeting this spring or summer, we suggest that you go ahead and buy your Delta ticket, but also, buy a fully refundable (Y) back-up ticket on a non-strike threatened airline. (Try AirTran, Continental, US Airways, TWA, America West, or Frontier among others.)

PREZ SEZ. Regarding airline strikes, President Bush said on March 9, "I'm concerned about their impact, concerned about what it could mean to this economy, and I intend to take the necessary steps to prevent airline strikes from happening this year." On the same day, Bush convened a PEB related to the NW strike. (Even though many see Bush's moves as typically pro-business-Republican, we are wondering how quickly Bush will come to the aid of Delta's Leo Mullin, a staunch Democrat, when he faces the same hurdle.)

POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. Along with plenty of other helpful info, Delta has posted a helpful flow chart illustrating the various pathways of this situation on its web site at http://www.delta.com/pdfs/Chart.pdf. Most Delta execs, including CEO Mullin, believe that the federal government, either through a Presidential Emergency Board (as in the recent NW action), or worse, Congressional action, will be used to impose a settlement between groups at most major carriers.

OTHER STRIFE. Even AirTran is now dealing with disgruntled pilots, although there seems to be no potential strike in the offing. Northwest mechanics, currently forced to work by a presidential emergency board, plane to picket in front of the White House. United flight attendants, angry over certain terms of United's pending merger with US Airways, promise to inflict what they call CHAOS strikes in unannounced areas in early April. American is currently in talks with flight attendants, the failure of which could result in strike in mid April. The earliest Comair pilots could strike is March 26. (While Continental is picking up new biz all over due to labor strife, it's gonna be in the same boat next year, and you can bet its pilots will be looking for more $$.)

How is the potential for a strike affecting your spring or summer travel plans? Let us know! ticketatl@travelskills.com

DATE: Thursday, March 01, 2001

As Delta's lurch toward a possible strike and painful shutdown beckons, THE TICKET will attempt to keep you as up to date with the situation as possible. Expect more NEWSBITES than normal until the situation calms down. Here's the latest:

In December, Delta and its pilots agreed to work toward a labor agreement with the assistance of the National Mediation Board (NMB), and at that time, they set Weds, Feb. 28 as the deadline for such talks. Since that date has now come and gone without a settlement, we now enter a new phase of this painful process.

First of all, many of you flying this week will see Delta pilots picketing at many major airports. This is an informational picket ONLY and does not mean that the pilots are on strike or that the airline's operations are affected.

As of this afternoon (March 1) we are waiting to see what the outcome of last night's impasse will be. Basically, two things could happen.

First, the NMB could ask both sides to agree to binding arbitration, which means that both sides would let the NMB come up with a final settlement on its own. Since it is unlikely that either side will agree to this, this scenario would end with the beginning of a 30 day cooling off period, at the end of which would be a strike.

Second (and preferable as far as we can see now), the NMB could temporarily force both sides to continue to negotiate, effectively pushing back the beginning of the 30 day cooling off period.

Finally, if we reach the end of a 30-day cooling off period without a settlement and a strike looks imminent, President Bush could (and has hinted that he would) step in and prohibit a strike for 60 days.

So, as it stands right now, a shutdown of Delta operations is most unlikely until early June.

But stay tuned to these NEWSBITES and a new SPECIAL STRIKE ADVICE section on THE TICKET PORTAL (http://www.travelskills.com/portal.htm) for the latest updates and links.

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